Election Prediction
After watching the 3 debates so far, and carefully following the polls, I have concluded that Mitt Romney will be elected the 45th President of the United States.
Since Romney clobbered Obama in the Denver debate, the polls have moved significantly in Romney’s favor. Or at least the polls I trust. I follow Rasmussen and Gallup, as I believe they have the best recent track record in previous elections. Today, Gallup has Romney up 7 points among likely voters. That is a big margin, and will be very difficult for Obama to make up in less than 3 weeks.
Mind you, this is not an endorsement. Mitt Romney is almost uniquely unqualified to be President. He will say anything, and take any position, if he thinks it will help him win. He has very little in the way of core beliefs, other than he believes he can manage the mammoth Federal bureaucracy better than Obama can. Mitt Romney will not cut one dime out of the massive, bloated government.
The only reason he is almost uniquely unqualified is because Barack Obama IS uniquely unqualified to be President. He has been there for four years. He has run up a staggering amount of debt, which I’m going to have to pay back. He and his Federal Reserve lackey have debased the currency causing everything to cost more. He has piled up needless regulations. Over 20% of Americans either don’t have a job, have given up looking for a job, have a job which is part-time, or a job which is way beneath what they are trained for. It’s a disgrace.
I am begrudgingly voting for Romney. I was going to write Ron Paul’s name in, but my Romney friend begged me to vote for Romney. I figure 1) my vote does not mean anything anyway, and 2) it will make my friend happy, so I’m voting for Romney. I grudgingly admit the coming lean years will be slightly less lean under Romney. Slightly.
How will the Romney victory affect the FMCSA? Probably very little. Ray LaHood and Anne Ferro will be out, as they are political appointees. LaHood already said he’s leaving; maybe he saw the handwriting on the wall some time ago.
One area where there could be a significant change is the pending new hours of service changes, where Obama plans to restrict the 34 hour reset on the 70 hour rule, among other things. This will be effective in July, 2013. A Romney FMCSA may shut that down. Maybe. Maybe not.
Other than that, I don’t really expect too much to change under a Romney FMCSA. It’s possible he may limit their budget, but I highly doubt it. He may tells the apparatchiks to lighten up on the enforcement activities and new regulations, but I doubt it.
For the most part, in those type of agencies, the apparatchiks run the place. The political leadership appointed by Romney to run FMCSA will know very little about the FMCSA programs and procedures, and will take their cues from the apparatchiks. It would take very strong appointed leadership to change the behavior of the FMCSA bureaucrats, and I just don’t see that kind of person being appointed by Romney.
Get out the golf clubs, Barack. Plenty of time to hit the links where you’re going.
Adverse Driving Conditions
Here’s a topic which every over the road driver seems to know: adverse driving conditions. 49 CFR 395.1(b)(1) states that a driver may run 2 hours over his 11 and 14 hour limits to complete his run if he encounters adverse driving conditions.
Well, what does that mean? “Adverse driving conditions” is defined in 49 CFR 395.2 as “snow, sleet, fog, other adverse weather conditions, a highway covered with snow or ice, or unusual road and traffic conditions, none of which were apparent on the basis of information known to the person dispatching the run at the time it was begun.”
Most DOT people try to limit or ignore this section of the rules. Nevertheless, it is still in the rules, and it still does apply. DOT focuses on the part “none of which were apparent on the basis of information known to the person dispatching the run”.
In other words, if AccuWeather has been calling for snow to start falling in mid-afternoon, and my run is scheduled to end at 6pm, then the arrival of snow would not meet the definition of “adverse driving conditions”. Yeah, it’s adverse, but no, it was not unknown at the time of dispatch.
The part about unusual road and traffic conditions is also pretty vague. To a DOT guy, this means if you get stuck in a 2 or 3 hour traffic jam in Newark at rush hour, that is not unusual, and therefore, you do not get to claim adverse driving conditions. To me, that would be unusual. Yes, traffic is heavy in the Northeast at certain times of the day, but if what normally takes 2 hours, takes 4 or 5 hours today because of an accident, then it’s unusual.
Another part of this exception is the part about completing your run. This is undefined, but to me, it means if you were supposed to make it back to the yard by the end of the day, and within your normal hours of service, but cannot due to “adverse driving conditions”, then you get the additional 2 hours. Or, if you were going to make it to the receiver by the end of your shift, then you get the additional 2 hours.
Where I do not think it applies is if you were not going to deliver or be at the yard by the end of the shift. For example, if I am on a multi-day run from Pennsylvania to California, and in Missouri, I encounter adverse driving conditions, which prevent me from making it that night to my favorite truckstop, with the really good, all-you-can eat buffet. I do not believe the exception allows me to drive the extra 2 hours, because the AYCE buffet is not the end of my run…. California is.
Another twist to the exception is, it only applies to the 11 and 14 hour rules. It does not apply to the 70 hour rule. If your 70 hour clock runs out while sitting in a massive traffic jam, you do not get another 2 hours to extend your 70 hour clock.
If a driver wants to use this exception, I recommend noting the adverse driving conditions in the comments section of the log. Otherwise, it’s going to look like an hours of service violation. What happens if you get stopped at a scale at your 15th hour, after finally clearing that 3 hour traffic jam caused by an accident? Be prepared to explain what adverse driving conditions mean, where the adverse driving conditions were, where you are going, when you normally would have gotten there, etc., etc. As I pointed out, the definitions of these terms is somewhat vague, and DOT cops want to draw it as narrowly as possible.
With the advent of the black boxes, I predict this section of the rules will see a big comeback in the coming years. I thoroughly expect DOT to limit it through more careful interpretation, or eliminate it altogether, as it is incompatible with their new “zero-tolerance” attitude for violations.
